Inside What the Desmond Bane Trade Could Have Looked Like

Working in the NBA

Waking up the other day to Memphis trading Desmond Bane to the Magic was not expected.

It’s a fascinating trade for many reasons.

But here are some of the things that stand out to me.

First of all, it is a clear overpay. The Magic paid a premium price for Bane. This does not mean it is a bad trade for them, simply that they had to overpay to get their guy.

This tells me a few things. First, the Orlando Magic looked across the Eastern Conference and feel as if they can compete for the Conference right now. They smelled blood in the water with the Tatum injury, Dame injury, Knicks turmoil, Cavs flameout, and the unexpected rise of the Pacers. Trading for Desmond Bane not only puts them in the mix for next season but gives them a multiple year runway to build around their new Big 3.

For our purposes here, I am going to track how something like this could go down and what roles people on staff would have.

They’ve been tracking Desmond Bane for awhile. You don’t overpay on a whim. You overpay when you know what you want. The Grizzlies weren’t looking to move him. And the Magic identified him as their ‘guy.’

Each season, an NBA organization (in particular, the scouting staff) determines what they think each team’s plan for the season is (compete for a championship, playoffs, tank, etc). You use that knowledge to them assess what players might become available during the season. Obviously, this can ebb and flow throughout the season.

Memphis was hot early in the season and would not have considered any type of Bane trade and Orlando likely did not approach knowing that he would not be available. Around the Trade Deadline, Memphis had been slipping and Orlando likely approached on Bane’s availability at that time.

When a staff determines who they think could become available and who they are targeting, they will start heavily scouting that player (attending games live and watching every game and all of that player’s interactions on the court) to assure themselves of the fit. They will start doing deep intel dives to learn as much about the player as possible to be ready if they are able to acquire him. And for the video staff, they’ll be regularly putting together footage of him for the GM and Owner to watch (and possibly Head Coach as well).

Memphis decided to stay put at the Trade Deadline but at this point, they now know that Orlando has targeted Bane. Now that they have this information, if they know that they are willing to move him, they can do a soft look around the League to assess how much value they can get for him. And not only that, they know they can demand a premium for him from Orlando for two reasons. First, they’re okay not trading him. When you are okay keeping your guy, you hold the cards. Secondly, they know Orlando will have to overpay market value and that they likely will. One team typically holds the cards and you can tell by how many draft picks go to the other side.

The Clippers wanted Paul George so Sam Presti held them hostage for everything they had. The Nets wanted Garnett and Pierce so the Celtics got everything they demanded in return (with rumors of Ainge continuing to add picks on before the trade was official). The Knicks wanted Bridges and had to ‘overpay.’ The Suns wanted Durant and gave up nearly everything (saving a bit to add Bradley Beal, what?!).

So how does Luka only get one 1^st round pick? Because Dallas approached LA. LA held the cards. Had LA approached Dallas, it would have been all of LA’s picks and swaps going to Dallas.

So yes, the Magic did pay a premium for Bane. But did they? Time will tell.

I am sure the Magic did an assessment on their projections of where the draft picks would land and how they have fared in those draft positions. There last three 1^st round picks have been Tristan da Silva, Anthony Black, and Jett Howard. They would easily give up those three for Bane and the additional 1^st is to get off of Pope’s contract. So in their calculations, the odds are that they are giving up less than what they expect to have in Bane. Everything in the NBA (especially centered around the Draft) is a projection. You project where your picks will be, who will be available, and ultimately, you project the player.

Although, I do think they paid a premium for Bane, I like that they targeted their guy and got him. That’s not easy to do.