Getting Your NBA Draft Big Board Right with Video
Working in the NBA
“Watching tape is what most people do. Studying tape is what professionals do.” -Michael Lombardi
When it comes to watching film on NBA prospects, it can be a never-ending process.
“Hey John, can we get every conference game broken down by this week of the Top 15 prospects?”
“Hey John, can you get all of the summer and AAU footage of him?”
“Hey John, can you get the Top 100 prospects loaded in the theater?”
There were always possible and impossible questions, but regardless, the work always got done. Video Coordinators know what I mean.
But scouting the video was an art. An art I learned and honed over time. And an art I watched many GM’s and Scouts stumble over.
In a recent podcast of the GM Shuffle, Michael Lombardi his thoughts on using film for scouting the NFL Draft.
“College football is not about how much tape you watch, it’s about the right tape you watch. If you want to know a really good player… watch the best matchups. There are certain games you have to watch. There are certain games you don’t care about. There is false evidence. In scouting you can collect false evidence. It’s not about how many games you watch but the right games to watch.”
The part that stands out to me there is false evidence.
In a desire for a Scout or GM to confirm what they’re hoping a player to be, they often want to see examples on film. But it’s easy to show a player dominating in a certain setting if there are no parameters to the film. All NBA prospects are elite in some kind of setting. All NBA prospects are able to show their ‘complete package’in a certain setting.
Oftentimes, I’d have a Front Office member want me to send video to the Owner but trimming it in a way to make the player look better. Easy fix for a Video Coordinator but I always thought, ‘if we’re having to show this guy in a certain manner, are we sure we’re not just confirming our own hopes for him to be a certain type of player that he isn’t consistently?’
We would watch video in the theater and a certain play would be watched over and over and over, making you feel this was a regular part of the player’s game (look what he can do!) but it was really a one-off if you watched video in its entirety.
On another player, we watched his film from a game where he went around 15-24 FG. And then we watched that game 2 more times. We did not even bother with his previous outing of 0-17 FG. We liked him and we wanted to confirm our bias.
And for me, I had to learn the Art of a Video Coordinator. If we were watching film as a staff, I couldn’t start viewing with negative clips because I’d lose the viewers. I had to start positively, but then, I needed a flow after that to properly reflect the player. I wanted to show the player in situations that were translatable from the College (or current) level to the Pro level. How do they operate in a P/R? Transition? Athleticism? Creating Space? Isolation? Things that would translate to the next level… not necessarily dominating with their back to the basket because they are bigger, faster, stronger (creating false evidence statistically and analytically).
One player we drafted told me that in college, opponents weren’t allowed to guard him. His collegiate coach had so much influence that officials wouldn’t allow opponents to ‘touch’ him. He racked up awards and statistics, was a 1st round draft pick and then had to face opponents that were allowed to defend him and it was a different story for his NBA career.
Another piece I had to add to scouting… Who is the opponent? Who is the coach? Is there a referee bias towards this team? What will translate to the next level? What is creating false evidence?
One of my biggest draft misses over the years was Jan Vesely. I watched him dominate inferior player with highlight dunks and 3-pointers. I saw Blake Griffin. But I’d never scouted International competition and therefore completely misjudged the level of his competition and the things he was able to do due to the space and freedom he had on the court. What I saw was false evidence of what the player could be.
Obviously, in scouting, no one has cracked the code. Although, the Spurs have maybe cracked the winning the draft lottery code in seasons of generational big men??! But in all things, there are best practices. There are learning curves.
There is an Art to scouting. There is an Art to watching video. As you prepare your Big Boards, take notes of what you’re seeing. Make your projections. Write down what you’re seeing and why you think it will translate. And over time, you will find yourself getting better and better and better in your analysis.
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